The winning chances are always determined for the batting team since the targets are available only for the batting team.
At 38, they can, at best, aim for the full innings score.įreak pitches, which led to real-life scorelines of 75/123/475 or 523/598/173, should be ignored.Īfter the complexities of the third-innings targets, this is a piece of cake since the targets are set in stone and could range from 1 to 836. At an RpW of 13, the team should aim for something more, in this case, 20%. The average Runs per Wicket (RpW) for the combined first-innings scores (limited between 10 and 40) is multiplied by 10, 11 or 12 to determine the target.ĭiffering multiplying factors are used so that varying RpW values are treated differently. Sequences of 130/110 or 450/500 should not lead to similar pre-determined targets. There is no difference whether the third batting team has the lead or is in deficit. The third-innings score target was 437.ĭiffering targets such as 200 and 250 are used in order to differentiate between 245-run and 377-run leads and to allow for the freshness of bowlers. Therefore England have been given a fourth-innings target of 200. The third-innings target was 577.Įngland 284 and South Africa 521 means that England batted again after bowling 195 overs, and the South African bowlers were fresh. India could only think of going for a lower target of 200. Sri Lanka 600 and India 223 means that the deficit was 377. The bowlers were tired and India could exploit this to work towards a fourth-innings target of 250. For eg:Īustralia 445 and India 171 means that India batted again after the Australian bowlers had bowled 60 overs. Using the target and the projected scores, a WinIndex value is determined for the winning team.Ī follow-on is treated differently to a non-follow-on situation.At each measuring point, a projection is done based on the team score, historic data, and the first two/three innings scores.The target for the fourth innings is, of course, known. This is a complex process since it relates to setting up a potential fourth-innings target. A notional target score is estimated for the third innings.Thus, there are a maximum of 20 measuring points. The computation of the index values is carried out before the start of the third and fourth innings and at the fall of a wicket in these innings. right before the third innings commences. The analysis starts at the mid-point of each Test, i.e.But here, to get us started, is a summary. The details of the methodology are in the sidebar. It turned out to be so in this exercise, which looks at Test cricket's greatest comebacks, with their spectrum of heroic and logic-defying feats. Any Test analysis is multilayered and the most obvious solution need not be the correct one. As an analyst, I can vouch for the fact that the Test format offers the most nuanced and complex challenge of all.